Given estimates for all of these parameters, one could then estimate the number of civilizations in our galaxy. L = the length of time such civilizations release detectable signals into space. N e = the average number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planets,į ℓ = the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop life at some point,į i = the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop intelligent life,į c = the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space, R = the average rate of star formation per year in our galaxy,į p = the fraction of those stars that have planets, For those who have never been introduced to this equation, it asserts the following:Īccording to Wikipedia, these variables represent the following quantities:
The basic technique involves modifying the Drake Equation, an equation used to estimate the number of potential extraterrestrial civilizations in our galaxy.
candidate from the University of Warwick wrote a paper titled " Why I Don't Have a Girlfriend." This method recently gained some attention when Peter Backus, a Ph.D. Instead, in the context of finding a mate, I offer the following method to calculate the number of partners you could reasonably expect to find in your area. There are ways to circumvent this problem, which I will not discuss here. The major problem with this model is that in many situations, the value of n is unknown. While this strategy won't guarantee you get the best choice, it will give you the best choice around 37% of the time. In either case, the outcome is the same: you should look at roughly the first n/ e of them (yes, that e), and then select the first one after those n/ e which is better than all that you have seen so far. This applies to a variety of situations, from hiring a secretary to finding a girlfriend to apartment hunting. Let me briefly recall the problem and its solution: suppose you have n candidates, from which you want to pick the best one. This is less romantically known as the secretary problem. Some time ago, I wrote an article on the optimal way to select a mate, assuming you know how many eligible partners exist, and that once you've dated someone, you can't go back and date them again (sorry, Drew Barrymore and that dude from the Apple commercials).
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